Research Shows 2030 National Targets Will Be Missed By Tens And Tens Of Thousands
Ireland is set to miss its target of building 300,000 new homes by 2030 by between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, according to research that Wicklow’s Sinn Féin TD John Brady says is evidence of years of Government failure.
Speaking to ECFM News, Deputy Brady said the Deloitte Crane Survey Report was further proof of the failure of the Government parties.
“This latest report from Deloitte is just the latest grim evidence of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s abysmal failure to tackle the housing crisis over many years. And this report projects that the government are set to miss their 2030 housing targets by a staggering 136,000 homes. And for families right across Wicklow, this is simply not an abstract situation.”
He said the human cost is already being felt locally.
“It’s young couples saving for years but still unable to buy. It’s families paying an unsustainable proportion of their income in rent. And it’s young people who grew up here being forced to leave because they cannot find an affordable place to live in their own communities. And over many years, government have spectacularly failed to deliver the supply of affordable homes that communities so badly need.
Calls for overhauls and changes
Targets have been set and continue to be missed and delivery has failed to keep pace with the ever-growing demand and the barriers facing working people have continued to grow year on year. People right across Wicklow are paying the price for these failures. What we need are fundamental changes in approach and sustained social and genuinely affordable housing, greater investment in local authority housing and action to ensure that homes are delivered so that local people can actually afford to purchase them.”
What the report says
Deloitte estimates that 40,000 homes will be completed nationally this year, a 10% rise on 2025. That still leaves 260,000 homes to be built over the next four years to reach the 300,000 goal.
The report says the pace of planning permissions is not keeping up. Almost 182,130 homes have been granted permission over the past five years, but Central Bank of Ireland data from 2017 to 2020 shows that between 25% and 32% of permissions lapse without construction starting.
Applying that ratio produces the projected shortfall. Even if all of this year’s 40,000 completions came from permissions granted outside the last five years, Deloitte says there would still be a gap of 77,870 homes.
Because of the delay between permission being granted and building starting, Deloitte says the next 12 to 18 months are critical. Its Chief Economist, Kate English, said completions are on course to reach their highest level since 2008, but that the planning pipeline is less promising.
She said the high completion figures are partly down to the 2024 development levy waiver, which requires construction to be finished by 31 December 2026. She welcomed Section 28 guidelines instructing local authorities to zone more land for housing, but said rezoned land must be viable and realistic to develop.
Student accommodation and other sectors
The picture for students is also stark. Just 365 purpose-built student bed spaces were completed nationwide in 2025.
That is well below the ten-year annual average of 1,620. Only 380 are due in 2026, even though third-level enrolments are expected to rise from 222,170 to a peak of 247,600 by 2033/34.
A total of 2,400 bed spaces were under construction at the end of Q3 2026, and a further 11,875 have planning permission, though Deloitte says it is hard to know how many will go ahead.
The report also shows hotel transactions fell sharply in the first half of 2026, to seven deals worth €82.75 million, compared with around €340 million a year earlier. Development remains strong, with 3,540 hotel rooms under construction nationwide. In Dublin, 2026 is the last year of significant new office delivery, with very limited new supply expected from 2027 to 2030.
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